It’s that time again to sit down and give some feedback on the draft. My favorite part of post-draft might have been Kaitlyn talking about how nervous she was for this article to come out. Here it is... and I'm not sure you're going to love it. I should have done this last weekend, but I ran out of time. Maybe we need to move the draft up so I have more time to write this stuff afterward.
Just kidding. That’s terrible reasoning.
I actually like having the draft as late as we can so we don’t have to start keeping up with roster management until the NFL actually kicks off. So now that I’m off to a good start rambling, let’s get into my thoughts.
I decided this year to run some analysis on how I ranked everyone’s draft compared to how some industry experts would rank them. Mostly this is to inflate my ego so I can convince myself I’m smarter than guys who actually get paid to do this. Then, when I’m wrong, all of you can enjoy how ridiculous it was that I thought my opinion was better than theirs in the first place.
At some point on the new website I’m going to build a Nick’s an Idiot feature so everyone can go back and see exactly how poorly, and occasionally halfway decently, these predictions turned out.
All in good fun.
I’m going to give you my rankings first, then we’ll get into what the “experts” I cherry-picked thought as we go.
After actually sitting down and looking seriously at every roster, this was probably the hardest year I’ve had ranking the drafts. I thought almost everyone did pretty well. There are a couple teams at the top that I think are clearly more complete builds, but honestly, teams 4 through 11 could probably be shuffled almost randomly and I could buy the reasoning behind it.
But if we did that, we wouldn’t have nearly as much to argue about later or as many receipts to keep.
So here’s where I landed.
- Ertz2Hurtz
- HarbaughCo
- Puro Macho
- Uncle Jrue
- SnickleFrits
- Kelly Tough
- Face planting
- Joe Buck Yourself
- Atwater
- Texasforever
- Rafi Bomb
- Over the Taysom Hill
Short on time? Jump straight to your team: Ertz2Hurtz | HarbaughCo | Puro Macho | Uncle Jrue | SnickleFrits | Kelly Tough | Face planting | Joe Buck Yourself | Atwater | Texasforever | Rafi Bomb | Over the Taysom Hill
Who are these experts, anyway?
Before I start dropping names like everybody is supposed to know who these guys are, here’s who I used.
Jake Ciely is the senior fantasy writer at The Athletic. He’s an award-winning analyst who does rankings and projections, and his numbers were already part of my personal draft prep. He's a guy that I pay attention to.
Justin Boone is a fantasy analyst at Yahoo. He won FantasyPros’ Most Accurate Expert Award in 2019 and 2025 and has nine top-10 finishes in that competition. So he has actual credentials. Remember that when I start arguing with him later.
Pat Fitzmaurice is the managing editor and a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros. I used his individual Superflex rankings and also the separate FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR. That second one combines a bunch of analysts rather than relying on one guy. More people for me to disagree with at once. Efficient.
JJ Zachariason is the guy behind Late-Round Fantasy Football. He got his start with a book called The Late-Round Quarterback and takes a data-heavy approach to finding value. For this, I used his public Market Score, which looks at things like average draft position, age and previous production. That isn’t his full draft board, but it gives us another way to look at the players we took.
My Fantasy Analyzer is an automated Sleeper draft grader, not another guy with a podcast. It also gave a bunch of our defensive picks F’s, so I’m not pretending it understands every part of this league.
To be clear, these guys didn’t personally sit down and review our draft. I ran our actual picks through comparisons using their player rankings, projections and scores. We looked at the resulting lineup, the keeper contribution and what we paid for players. When I say the Boone version had you first, that’s what I mean. Boone did not call me to discuss Uncle Jrue. I'm not sure Boone would call me after he sees this.
I also ran my own preseason draft board through the same exercise. That is not the same thing as the order I just gave you. I looked at the finished rosters and changed my mind about some things. Apparently even I don’t agree with me.
Now let’s get into it.
1. Ertz2Hurtz
I actually think Ertz2Hurtz won this draft, despite the... questionable? Curious? Naive? decision to draft Travis Hunter in the ninth round and then drop him almost immediately afterward.
Brother, we may need to go over the sunk-cost fallacy sometime. You’ve got the right idea but the wrong execution.
Way to cut bait, I guess, but I’m not sure cutting bait a few hours after the draft was exactly the lesson I had in mind. Maybe you were just playing The Big Bang Theory’s four-dimensional chess and trying to get Drew to spend $12 in FAAB to take him off your hands. If so, that’s next-level thinking. And it worked, so good for you. Maybe that’s why you give 15% effort to school and still get A’s and B’s. 😆
The reason I like this roster so much starts with the running backs. Gibbs, Achane and Javonte Williams make a stacked room, especially in a year where I thought RB depth dried up pretty quickly. That gives you a major advantage over most teams.
You also waited longer than almost anyone at quarterback because you already had Jaxson Dart, and I think that worked for you. Dart, Tyler Shough and Cam Ward probably aren’t going to dominate the quarterback matchup every week (especially Ward), but they should keep you competitive there while the rest of your roster carries the load. I know you weren’t a huge fan of Tyler Shough, but if Week 1 is a preview of what’s coming, you’ll really have something. What I would keep in mind now is Kyle Brandt’s rule: Week 1 is a liar. So who knows what the heck is going to happen?
I’m lower on Colston Loveland than most of the fantasy community, mostly because I’m lower on Caleb Williams and Chicago in general, but if Loveland becomes what everyone thinks he will, you’re fine there.
Wide receiver is the weak spot for me. Malik Nabers is super talented, Brian Thomas Jr. has plenty of juice, and Chris Godwin can help, but after that it gets thin quickly. Picking up Vele was smart. He was on my watch list, and I think New Orleans wants him involved. He could become a really useful WR2/3-type option for you.
If you ever decide to trade from that running back depth, and I’m not convinced you should, I think you could get a haul at receiver.
And before anyone decides I just put my own son first out of some sort of nepotism, My Fantasy Analyzer had you first too. The Ciely and FantasyPros versions both had you third. Boone and Fitzmaurice had you sixth, so it wasn’t unanimous, but I’m not alone here. I still like the way you used the Dart keeper to build the rest of this roster.
You’re going to be really tough to beat this year.
2. HarbaughCo
I’m going to like just about any draft that starts with three running backs in a row, especially when those running backs are Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Those three alone make you a heavyweight contender in my mind.
Everyone in this league knows Jonathan Taylor is my fantasy running back huzz, and you stole him from me. Pairing him with Barkley and Henry gives you one of the two best RB rooms in the league along with Ertz2Hurtz.
I also really like how your quarterback room turned out. I like it at least as much as Rafi Bomb’s, maybe more, and you got your guys two rounds later. That’s the kind of drafting I like.
The obvious weakness is wide receiver. You don’t have a huge superstar there, but at least the guys you took have legitimate talent and paths to production.
Mike Evans has a chance in San Francisco to keep being the touchdown machine he has always been. We all know how talented DK Metcalf is. I just don’t trust Pittsburgh or old-man Rodgers enough to feel great about it. Quentin Johnston should have his weeks with the Chargers, although he’s probably going to remain streaky.
Jerry Jeudy and Keenan Allen don’t do much for me. Jeudy is stuck in Cleveland with a quarterback situation that looks like a dumpster fire, and Allen is well past his prime and no longer in the Chargers offense that loved feeding him targets.
Jacoby Brissett, though, might be my favorite late quarterback pick in the entire draft among guys who actually have a chance to matter this year. He is going to start some weeks for you, and I think he’ll do a perfectly good job.
I also liked the back-to-back shots at tight end with Goedert and Juwan Johnson, and I thought you handled the defensive picks well.
Here’s where the comparison gets funny. I have you second. The Boone, Fitzmaurice and FantasyPros versions all had you eleventh. Freaking 11th. Late-Round and My Fantasy Analyzer had you dead last. Even the version using my own preseason board only had you sixth.
So apparently I’m not just disagreeing with the experts. I’m ignoring my own homework.
I get the concern. This isn’t a young roster, and waiting at receiver left you without the kind of guy those other teams have at the top. But I still like what you did. Taylor, Barkley and Henry, then quarterbacks I think can compete without paying second- and third-round prices? I’m taking that side of the argument. This might be the prediction you all get to throw back at me the hardest.
I really liked this draft. I think you have a legitimate shot to win the whole thing. Or we're both a couple of dumb dumbs. Time will tell.
3. Puro Macho
It never ceases to amaze me how much I like your draft every year.
I thought taking Ja’Marr Chase as your first pick was obviously the right move, and while everyone will learn in this article... I’m lower on Caleb Williams than most people. He is still going to have weeks like Week 1 where he just goes off. If he actually takes another step forward and becomes more consistent, I’m eventually going to have to come around on him.
Sometimes it just still looks hard for him. Then two plays later he does something ridiculous and reminds you there is some magic there.
I loved Chase Brown as your RB1 in the third round. I think the Bengals offense is going to be electric.
After that, though, the running back room gets a little scary. Love has a real chance, so we’ll see, but I don’t know how much I trust that Arizona offense. Waiting until the tenth round and then having to take Jonathon Brooks felt like a mistake to me. I think you’re probably going to have to churn that position during the season.
The flip side is that you built a really strong receiver room.
Rashee Rice should be good. Parker Washington is really good in Jacksonville. Carnell Tate has talent, although being stuck in Tennessee worries me. KC Concepcion was a guy I really wanted. Cleveland is a mess, but they’re probably just going to feed him the ball. Repeatedly.
I also liked your late quarterback swing on Michael Penix. He may start at some point, and I think there’s a legitimate chance he becomes a really interesting keeper option next year. Rashid Shaheed is another worthwhile shot. The talent is there if he can finally put everything together in Seattle.
The outside numbers mostly support this one. The Ciely version had you second overall and first in early-round value. Boone had you third, and you finished second in the combined comparison. Chase Brown, Caleb and Stroud all helped the Ciely grade. So this isn’t just my annual habit of liking your draft. There’s some outside support for it too.
I like your draft a lot. There are definitely ways it can go wrong, mostly at running back, but I also know you’ll stay active enough to fix things if you need to.
4. Uncle Jrue
With you and Kaitlyn picking right before me, I was halfway grading both of your drafts in real time while also trying to figure out what I was doing.
Your wide receivers are excellent. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins and Garrett Wilson are a ridiculous starting group. Christian Watson has a real chance to matter in Green Bay this year too. He got paid, and now we’ll see if he becomes the kind of player who rises to the level of that contract. He looked good in Week 1.
I loved Jayden Daniels as a rookie and was fortunate enough to have him, but there’s still something about him and that Washington offense that makes me a little nervous. Taking him that high as your QB1 would have made me uncomfortable. At the same time, the upside is obvious, and he can absolutely make that concern look stupid.
Where you and I really disagree is running back.
My favorite back on your roster is probably David Montgomery in Houston. I think he’s going to eat there, and I wanted him. You got him as your RB3.
I was much lower on Price in Seattle. You’re the Seahawks guy, so I’ll trust that you know something I don’t, but he was on my fade list and I probably wouldn’t have touched him until much later.
Kenneth Walker in Kansas City is a complete wildcard for me. He could stabilize the whole room for you. He could also drive Reid and Mahomes crazy because he has such a specific running style and has always had a tendency to get caught behind the line of scrimmage looking for something bigger.
Boone, meanwhile, loved this draft. His version had you first in the whole league. It liked Walker, Nico and Watson relative to where we took them, which explains some of the enthusiasm. The Ciely and FantasyPros versions both had you eighth. I landed at fourth.
So there you go. One guy thinks you won the draft, two other sets of numbers are a lot less impressed, and I’m somewhere in the middle. Boone is apparently much more comfortable with Walker than I am. You’ve got a guy with actual credentials in your corner.
The rest of the roster is solid.
Aidan Hutchinson is a great defensive-line pick. He and Maxx Crosby might be my two favorite linemen in the league to watch right now.
I’m also not worried about the Texans defense just because Buffalo worked them over. Buffalo had lost four straight in Houston and clearly took that personally. Josh Allen especially wasn’t losing that game again.
The one spot I really don’t love is tight end. Travis Kelce should still give you useful weeks, but there are going to be other weeks where he looks every bit his age and gives you more floor than ceiling.
Overall, though, I think you’ve got a real chance. I like this team.
5. SnickleFrits
I like your draft. I’m just not sure I love it.
The starting receivers are strong. JSN and Drake London are easy to like.
I want to love Ashton Jeanty. I really do. Actually, I do, just not as a fantasy RB. And I know you’re a Boise State guy, so fantasy football is supposed to be fun and part of the point is getting guys you actually want to root for. I would have wanted him for that exact same reason but…
I think Jeanty is an extremely talented NFL running back. I’m just not convinced yet that he’s an elite fantasy RB1. I don’t like that Vegas offense very much, and I’d feel more comfortable if he were my RB2.
I do think you stole Bucky Irving in the fifth round. Jaylen Warren is another guy who seems to get overlooked every year and just keeps producing. He reminds me a little of James Conner in that way. Nobody ever gets particularly excited about him, but somehow the points keep showing up.
I’m less sold on the rest of the receiver room.
I’m still not sure what to think of Makai Lemon or what his role is going to become. I like Jordan Addison, but I worry about how much Kyler Murray limits him. I wanted to target Stribling too. You’ll know more about him than I do as a Niners fan, but everything I heard out of camp was positive. Hopefully the injury doesn’t derail it.
At the end of the draft, it felt like you knew you needed more running back depth and took a couple shots. I didn’t love either one, but to be fair, there wasn’t much left by then.
At tight end, I’m never supporting Kyle Pitts again. Ever. I’ve been hurt enough. Good luck with him. He will stab you in the back. Promise! And no, I'm not bitter or jaded. Dalton Schultz is fine, but uninspiring.
Quarterback should be okay. Jared Goff gives you stability. Kyler Murray is someone I went back and forth on all offseason. I ultimately landed in the place where I just didn’t think I could take him. But where you took him was absolutely right if you’re taking the shot.
The combined comparison also landed you fifth, although the version using my own preseason board had you second and gave you the best early-round value in the league. Fitzmaurice had you third. So the prices looked better to my draft prep than the finished roster feels to me now. That’s probably the Jeanty and Pitts uncertainty talking. Murray where you got him was still a bargain.
Good draft. Just not quite in my top couple.
6. Kelly Tough
I always like drafting toward the end of the round. If I couldn’t draft there, I’d probably want to draft near the beginning. There’s something easier about knowing you’re going to make two decisions close together instead of sitting in the middle waiting forever. Each time. That’s a long draft.
Coming into the draft, I really wanted to build around strong running backs.
I’m not sure I actually accomplished that.
Christian McCaffrey fell to me, and I really didn’t want to bet on him two years in a row. I felt good about doing it last year. This year I’m nervous.
I thought James Cook was going to fall all the way to me, and I was excited that I might finally get a Bills player without paying the normal Bills-fandom tax this league charges me.
And then Kaitlyn took him one pick before me.
So that felt normal. And dirty.
Hopefully McCaffrey proves me wrong for being nervous. Behind him I ended up with Quinshon Judkins and Chuba Hubbard. I like Hubbard more than most people and think he can be a solid RB2. Judkins is as talented as almost anybody, but Cleveland will be terrible, so I’m not sure exactly what that becomes.
The wildcard is Josh Jacobs. If he actually plays this year, I’m going to really like this team. If he stays on the commissioner’s list or gets suspended, that changes things quite a bit.
At receiver, I really like DJ Moore. I think he has a real chance to lead Buffalo in receiving by a long way. Getting Chris Olave as my keeper also gave me an advantage. I love Olave and think he’s a legit WR1.
This is also where I need to have a word with Justin Boone.
I had never heard of him before this exercise. Then the version using his rankings put me seventh. Apparently there was a reason.
He was lower on Moore than I was, and I like my side of that bet. No more “everybody eats” in Buffalo. Khalil has his role. Kincaid will get his targets and is a beast. But I trust Keon Coleman about as much as his yellow Macy’s coat. Tiger-wish-he-could was funny. Unfortunately, I’m starting to think his NFL game resembles actual Tiger Woods. So yes, somehow all that nonsense adds up to me thinking DJ Moore is a top-10 fantasy receiver this year. I don’t need Shakir or Kincaid to disappear. I just need Buffalo to use Moore like the receiver I think he is. I suspect they will.
I’m not completely in love with my quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts is always at least good in fantasy, but I’m not sure exactly what version of him we’re going to get in Philly this year. Brock Purdy is someone I’ve finally stopped trying to hate. I’m ready to admit he’s just a really good quarterback and not merely a Shanahan creation.
And if Brock Bowers gets and stays healthy, I love the tight-end room. Isaiah Likely is better than the fantasy community seemed to give him credit for too. Did you see him Week 1? I’m a fan of that.
I like my team.
Apparently not enough to rank myself in the top five.
Which is awkward, because the versions using my preseason board, Ciely, Fitzmaurice and FantasyPros all had me first. Late-Round had me second. Even the outside grader that put Weston first gave me the highest total roster value, although it ranked my actual draft fourth.
The combined result had me first too. I can see why the numbers like the roster. I can also see how CMC’s health and Jacobs’ availability could make those numbers irrelevant in a hurry.
I’m not giving myself the offseason championship. I'm not Rex Ryan. Sixth is just about right. Moving on.
7. Face planting
Let’s talk about this draft for a minute.
Your brother Josh did not like your draft at all and made sure to tell me all about it in our post-draft phone call. And honestly, there were definitely a few points in the middle where I was also wondering what exactly was happening.
You asked why we weren’t taking a kicker.
You kept the Vikings defense in the ninth round.
You were apparently drafting while doped up on NyQuil and Benadryl.
And somehow, after I looked at the completed roster, I almost ranked you in the top four... honestly.
What does that say about the rest of us?
I’m going to like any draft that starts with Josh Allen. He’s the best player in football right now, and there are going to be weeks where he basically wins the matchup himself.
Trey McBride is stupid good. I listened to him on the Ryen Russillo Podcast last year and the story cracked me up. McBride was basically a three-sport legend in a tiny town in Colorado, and somehow, while playing at Colorado State, still wasn’t sure if he was actually that good or just good because he was playing in a small town. Then he gets to Colorado State and is still wondering if he’s good enough to play Division I football. Russillo basically asks him how long it took before he realized, “actually I might be a beast?” Turns out, not very long.
The funniest part was McBride later talking about almost transferring to South Carolina, and he ended up not going because he didn’t believe in himself enough. The coaches seemed to use that against him, almost insinuating that he wasn’t good enough to make it, and he was basically like... yeah... I should probably stay here. Russillo was pointing out that maybe if he had played in the SEC or Big Ten, people would have figured out a little sooner how good he was. Poor Colorado State catching strays while their guy turns into one of the best tight ends in football. Anyway, I got derailed there. McBride is a stud.
The running backs aren’t bad either. Omarion Hampton has a lot of upside, although I actually like Kyren Williams more right now. For starters, that’s a perfectly solid duo.
Going back-to-back at receiver with DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins was strong too.
My concern is what happens after the starters.
Fernando Mendoza is eventually going to get starts, but I hated taking a rookie quarterback that high when I’m not completely sold on him. He has a chance, but I struggle betting heavily on quarterbacks who have good traits instead of elite traits.
You also spent quite a bit of draft capital on defense, including two defenses.
If you can figure out the depth and stay healthy, I think you’ve got a chance.
And apparently the numbers saw what almost talked me into moving you up. You finished fourth in the combined comparison, and the Late-Round Market Score version had you first. First! Allen, Hampton and the price on Tee Higgins helped that one quite a bit. Fitzmaurice’s version also gave you the strongest offensive lineup from new picks, even though the overall draft grade landed fourth.
So the draft looked strange while it was happening, but there’s a pretty good argument for what you ended up with.
Note to future Joel: keeping a defense in the ninth round probably isn’t the strongest use of your assets. Also, don’t get sick on draft day. Or do, and maybe you’ll be the Jordan flu-game version of yourself this season. Because I think you have a chance.
8. Joe Buck Yourself
Let me start with how incredibly annoyed I was when you took James Cook and left me sitting there with Christian McCaffrey.
That was dirty and you know it.
Good pick, though.
And Drew, if you thought I would pass on him two picks in a row and Kaitlyn would somehow pass on him again just so you could take him... in the words of Reverend Stephen A. Smith: Boy... you must be out your mind.
I’m convinced Cook is still going to have a really good season. I didn’t expect Buffalo to lean on him heavily against Houston in Week 1 because of how nasty their run defense is, but over the course of the year they’re going to get him involved both in the running and passing game. You’re in good shape there.
I love your quarterbacks.
Herbert and Nix are a pairing I might actually rather have than my own.
Where I’m less certain is some of the early swings you took at receiver and running back. I understand the logic. I just don’t love all the players.
George Pickens is incredibly talented, but I would have taken Nico Collins, Emeka Egbuka, DeVonta Smith, DJ Moore and maybe Tee Higgins over him. I could absolutely be wrong. The talent has never been the issue. I just think he’s a head case. Imagine what it would be like to sit in therapy with that dude. Wild self-assessment, I bet.
Davante Adams still has plenty of talent too, but Puka is clearly the WR1 in Los Angeles and Stafford loves him. We’ll see how many opportunities are left over.
I’m down on Chicago, so Luther Burden wasn’t someone I was targeting. Same thing with Jayden Reed. It isn’t that I think Reed is bad. I just don’t know that Green Bay gives him enough consistent opportunity with all the receivers they have.
Behind Cook, the running back room gets thin.
Swift is decent. I am not a MarShawn Lloyd believer. Croskey-Merritt has a chance if Washington ever lets somebody actually take control of that backfield, but that whole situation is messy.
You’re definitely set at tight end, and Denver should have a nasty defense again.
I’m also super intrigued by Jonah Coleman as a sneaky pick for you. I would bet Atwater and Texasforever both had him somewhere on their radar too.
And I have no idea how much Budda Baker actually helps in our fantasy scoring because defensive back is a weird scoring position, but I’d want him on my team anyway. He is one of the most talented defenders in football and has been hidden in Arizona forever.
And here is the biggest disagreement in the whole exercise. I have you eighth. The Boone, Fitzmaurice and FantasyPros versions all had you second. All three. Ciely had you ninth, and the Late-Round and outside-grader results were down near that end too. Almost nobody was in the middle.
The funny part is that some of the picks I just questioned are exactly where the other boards saw value. Boone, Fitzmaurice and FantasyPros all liked the prices on Swift and Burden. Kittle in the twelfth helped too. I’m looking at those same guys and worrying about how often I’ll actually want them in my lineup.
So this isn’t me finding three experts who agree with me and ignoring the rest. Three of them think you have one of the best drafts in the league. I clearly see it differently. This section has a very good chance of ending up on the Nick’s an Idiot page.
Good roster. I just didn’t love it quite as much as some of the other builds.
9. Atwater
I have you toward the bottom of the rankings, and there is a theme showing up here.
I was hard on teams that waited too long at running back.
Getting Skattebo as a keeper in the seventh round is really good. I think the Giants are going to be better than people expect, and if he stays healthy, pairing him with Stevenson gives you a decent starting duo.
Maybe not elite, but decent.
I like your quarterbacks. Burrow and Lawrence should both be really good.
At receiver, I’m less certain.
A.J. Brown going on IR already obviously hurts. Tetairoa McMillan and Jaylen Waddle should both produce, but I still feel like the room is missing one receiver I’m completely confident will dominate for you despite taking several early swings there.
I did like some of the later picks.
Jameson Williams still has breakout potential. Marvin Harrison Jr. could absolutely become the player everyone expected. (Except I’m 95% certain it won’t happen.) Pat Bryant might actually be my favorite late pick you made. Like I told Jaxson, I think Courtland Sutton starts getting phased out this year, and Bryant has real opportunity if that happens.
I’m not in love with the tight ends or the back half of the roster.
There wasn’t a huge fight over this one. You finished ninth in the combined comparison, right where I put you. My Fantasy Analyzer was more optimistic at sixth. I think that’s a reasonable picture of it: enough talent to be better than this ranking, but a few too many things I need to see come together first.
There’s enough here that I think you’ll have a chance, but I also think you need several things to go right and probably have some work to do as the season moves along.
10. Texasforever
All right, Riggins. Texas forever it is.
Drake Maye is a quarterback I want to hate and just can’t.
The dude is way too talented. He was a legitimate MVP candidate last year, and I’m interested to see what happens now that every defensive staff in the league has spent an offseason studying him after the breakout.
I don’t think they’ve figured him out.
I think he’s going to be a stud.
Patrick Mahomes is obviously fine as QB2. I just think there will be some weeks where the fantasy output is surprisingly low.
I’m not a huge Malik Willis guy, mostly because Miami might be the worst team in the league. Scratch that. They will be the worst team in the league. Them and Cleveland.
You should be set at tight end with Tyler Warren, and I know Kenyon Sadiq isn’t a BYU guy, but he is an East Idaho guy, so you’re still on brand.
The problem is running back.
I think you might have the weakest RB room in the league.
RJ Harvey, Rico Dowdle, Tyler Allgeier and Kyle Monangai are tough for me to trust. You’re more locked into Denver than I am, but I would be nervous having Harvey as my RB1. By the end of the year, I wouldn’t be shocked if Jonah Coleman is taking more and more of that workload.
Dowdle is too limited for me to count on as an RB2. I also think Allgeier’s role keeps shrinking because Arizona didn’t draft Love that high to keep him on the sideline forever.
Monangai is at least interesting. He flashed in Week 1, so we’ll see whether that sticks.
The good news is I really like your top three receivers.
I also have a well-documented appreciation for Courtland Sutton, but I think this is finally the year he starts getting phased out. I’m not a big Romeo Doubs guy either.
The outside rankings give you a much better argument than I just did. The Late-Round and My Fantasy Analyzer versions both had you third. FantasyPros had you fifth. I have you tenth. That is a pretty big gap.
I can see how Maye, Mahomes and CeeDee make the whole thing look better, and FantasyPros liked the value on Flowers and Willis. I’m just putting a lot more weight on the running backs than those results do. If that room turns out fine, you’re going to have a very easy time telling me about it.
And Buffalo needs to stop wasting Khalil Shakir on bubble screens.
If I see another one without Joe Brady letting him run actual routes down the field, I’m going to draft a strongly worded letter expressing just how peeved I am with the misuse of his career. Very strongly worded. And it will all stay in my head because who has time to mail letters anymore?
11. Rafi Bomb
I wanted to like your draft.
Honestly, I’m struggling with it.
Bijan is going to be really good. Great pick.
After that, I’m not sure I love going quarterback back-to-back that early with Stafford and Prescott.
I know quarterbacks were flying off the board, but I’m not convinced Stafford repeats last season. He isn’t catching anyone by surprise anymore, and Super Bowl champions have everybody coming after them. I don’t think he’ll be bad. I’m just not sure he’ll be MVP level again. Maybe not even a top-10 QB. I love the player. He’s an all-timer. But… we’ll see.
And I’ve officially decided I don’t like Dak Prescott. More like reaffirmed that I don’t like him.
It’s hard enough to like the Cowboys anyway, but Dak will occasionally make one of those throws that makes you wonder what he was looking at.
I love Ladd McConkey as a player. I just don’t trust the Chargers to consistently build the offense around him. I think I had him last year, maybe in this league or maybe somewhere else, because I liked the talent so much. But he burned me. And I hate how inconsistent the usage gets. I also worry he might spend a lot of his career fighting injuries.
Breece Hall is fine as an RB2.
I’d just rather have him as my RB3.
Tony Pollard and Charbonnet don’t excite me much, and neither does Aaron Jones at this stage. I used to love Jones, but he’s old now and I don’t think Minnesota wants to feature him.
Truthfully, my favorite value you got might have been Dalton Kincaid. Buffalo is going to run a lot of the passing game through him when he’s healthy. You saw it in Week 1, and getting him where you did was a really good bet for your starting tight end.
There just wasn’t much else in the draft that I loved. Maybe I’m rosterbating too hard here (get the reference?), but every time I stare at this roster I keep coming back to the same thing: I like a few of the pieces more than I like the whole.
Ciely gives you the best counterargument to all of that. His version had you sixth, which is a lot better than my eleventh. Boone, Fitzmaurice and FantasyPros all landed at tenth, so most of the outside numbers were closer to my concern. But you do have one set of rankings that sees a much more competitive draft than I do. I’d probably lead with that one when you tell me I’m wrong.
You stay active, so I’m sure this roster will look different by the end of the year. I just think you have a fair amount of work ahead of you if it’s going to turn into a championship roster.
12. Over the Taysom Hill
This is another one we need to talk about.
We were visiting during draft weekend, and in an effort to be considerate of me and Weston and not completely destroy the bandwidth on rural internet, you decided to draft from your phone.
Very selfless.
Unfortunately, I think your roster may have paid the price.
Let’s start with the good because I actually like the top of your starting lineup.
I think Lamar Jackson is going to have a bounce-back year. I might have taken him over Drake Maye if I’d had the choice. Part of me was hoping Lamar would somehow sneak all the way to the end of the first round, because I would have felt great taking him there.
I feel basically the same way about Justin Jefferson. There is no way he has another down year. If there’s one thing I trust Kyler Murray to do, it’s force the ball downfield, so Jefferson should get plenty of opportunities.
Puka is just really good, and still having him as a keeper even at his cost is awesome.
Jordan Love is talented enough that he could have gone higher than you got him. I’m just never completely sure how much Green Bay’s offensive staff is going to let him cook.
As you can probably guess, my issue is running back.
I was on the TreVeyon Henderson train last year, but I saw enough to question whether New England and Mike Vrabel will ever give him enough touches to become a consistent fantasy RB2.
I’m also fully out on Travis Etienne as an RB1. He couldn’t make it work consistently in Jacksonville. I actually think New Orleans could be sneaky decent this year, but Etienne still makes me nervous.
Blake Corum is okay, but Kyren Williams is just so good and should continue getting most of the opportunity there.
After that, the depth is mediocre at best.
Jake Ferguson should be fine at tight end, although there were other guys I would have preferred.
Alec Pierce got paid, but I worry he remains mostly a deep-ball player. Those guys always scare me in fantasy because the weekly floor disappears quickly.
Xavier Worthy is a reasonable dart throw, but I haven’t seen enough consistency to trust him yet.
Ja’Kobi Lane got plenty of offseason attention in Baltimore and might become useful later in the year. Same thing with Fields in New York.
And side note, I love the John Harbaugh pairing with the Giants. I think that team is going to be a pain to play against most weeks.
There are definitely pieces here I like.
I went looking for some help from the outside rankings, and unfortunately the versions using my board, Ciely, Boone, Fitzmaurice and FantasyPros all had you twelfth. My Fantasy Analyzer had you eighth, so we’ll at least give that one a little shine and airtime.
That’s a lot of agreement, but Lamar, Jefferson and Puka can still make the whole group look stupid. I wouldn’t mind that part.
I just don’t like the running back room enough to put the overall draft any higher.
So there it is. We had another successful draft and seriously I think everyone has a real shot. Make sure you use your FAAB this year and lock down those rosters. The Conference Cup is going to play a role in this league. It's not fully calculated on the league page until Tuesday, but right now here's what it's looking like. As of right now, with Monday night still to play:
| Conference | Current score | Projected final | Anticipated Cup points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pac-2 | 612.38 | 622.57 | 3 |
| SEC | 515.14 | 584.21 | 2 |
| Big Ten | 517.82 | 547.30 | 1 |
Pac-2 coming out hot. Hope you enjoyed the read and the methodology to get all this nonsense. Sometime I'll make sure the website lets you individually find receipts and rub my face in it. And I'll have deserved it! Also, if you didn't get a chance to watch that Bills-Houston game, take a look. That was a fun one.
Random side note on the games. Anyone see the crazy ruling on Jared Goff throwing a backward pass while getting hit and it being ruled an incompletion, with Florio explaining that "his intent was to throw a forward pass. Where the ball landed is irrelevant." If that's true, I want this interpretation to apply to my life. "Sorry, officer, I intended to go the speed limit. My actual speed was irrelevant. I'm not accepting this ticket." Or even better: "I intended to save all the money I've ever earned, so the actual money in my bank account is irrelevant. All future purchases get to use my intended bank account balance."
And with that, I'm out. Go Bills!
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